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Oscars: Deadline, Gold Derby , Indiewire Experts Engage In Heated Smackdown On Which Movies Take An Early Best Picture Lead

We just finished with the Emmys after a long grueling awards season for TVs highest honor, but in actuality we have simultaneously been in to the equally long and grueling Oscar season since early last month when it all started in earnest at Venice , Telluride , and Toronto. Although it still seems very early to be making predictions for the big night at the Dolby nearly five months from now on Sunday February 24th, still with several contenders yet to be seen, that doesnt stop Gold Derbys Tom ONeil , Indiewires Anne Thompson , and me from engaging in a little internecine warfare here at the PMC studios where their sites reside, along with Deadline.

We survey the landscape and take a bit of a leap in identifying front runners at this point in the Best Picture Oscar contest ( Actor and Actress early predix will be coming soon). Thompson makes the case for Netflixs first real Best Picture hope, the ecstatically received Roma from Alfonso Cuaron. The recent past for Oscar Best Picture winners like Moonlight, Birdman, Shape Of Water, 12 Years A Slave etc would indicate she is on to something (not to mention that four of the past five Best Director winners have come from Mexico including Cuaron himself), but I caution that already anointing a Netflix black and white Spanish language memoir with no known names on screen and mostly non-pro actors, great as it obviously is, might be a tougher sell in the year the Academy has made such a big deal about bringing in popular films to bump up faltering ratings. Or will that matter at all in an AMPAS membership that has been beefed up sharply with international filmmakers in recent years? A Star Is Born, Black Panther, First Man , and Toronto Audience winner Green Book are all discussed along with others in a conversation that gets heated at times. Lots of questions, but not many answers yet. To check out our video conversation just click on the link above.

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