West Coast's first pick in this year's national draft will be 61 if Geelong accept the Eagles offer of 20 and 22 for midfielder Tim Kelly.
The Cats don't think those pair of picks are a good enough return for Kelly, who was runner-up in their best and fairest and is set to be one of the game's better midfielders in the next five years.
Tim Kelly wants a move to West Coast, but the Cats aren't happy with the Eagles' offer.Credit:AAP
And they definitely don't think it is enough for the defending premiers to pay for a player that will make them better next season because Cats coach Chris Scott and CEO Brian Cook would be well aware such an exchange would automatically widen the gap between the two teams in 2019.
With Gary Ablett about to enter his final season, and a bounce expected from the arrival of Gary Rohan and Luke Dahlhaus, in 2019 they want someone to have the sort of impact Kelly had in 2018, a player capable of doing what Jaidyn Stephenson did at Collingwood this season.
So the Cats want a top 10 pick, something they have had only once since they selected Joel Selwood at pick No.7 in 2006.
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That was in 2014 when they organised a pick upgrade with Adelaide to select Nakia Cockatoo at pick 10.
He is a potential star, but given he has managed just 34 games and played less than 30 per cent game time in five of those due to injury, he is not someone they can bank on.
Add to the mix the fact Kelly doesn't want to go to the Dockers, locking them out of the process and denying the Cats any chance to get their hands on Fremantle's pick 11, and the reasons for the standstill are clear.
The reality is if the offer is taken in isolation, and the circumstances detailed above that surround the deal aren't taken into account, picks 20 and 22 are a reasonable return for the 24-year-old midfielder.
The likelihood they will lose Kelly for even less next year and the empathy Geelong feel for the father of three toddlers has made Geelong open to an offer but they want a high pick, something they have been clear about from the outset.
The Eagles tried to turn those picks into pick 13 but Adelaide grabbed that off the Sydney Swans as part of the Mitch McGovern deal, so they were left with a strong but not a knockout hand.
Perhaps if the Giants land picks nine and 11 for trading Shiel and Lobb, the Eagles might see if there is any interest in them turning pick 11 into 20 and 22 but that remains a long shot.
So picks 20 and 22 look most likely, but the Cats continue to refuse that offer despite knowing they can make those picks work, having landed Lachie Fogarty at pick 22, Kelly at 24, Brandan Parfitt at 26, Charlie Constable at 36 and Esava Ratugolea at 43 in the past two drafts.
In recent seasons clubs have secured not only Kelly but Charlie Spargo (pick 29 to Melbourne), Will Hayward (pick 21 to Sydney Swans) and Alex Witherden (pick 23 to Brisbane Lions) at that level.
All have impressed as solid support acts (Ratugolea might be a bit better and Kelly definitely is one of the Cats' best) but none have quite the class of former top 10 picks at the Cats in Jimmy Bartel, Andrew Mackie, Joel Corey and Selwood, being more comparable to Cam Guthrie and Mitch Duncan than Patrick Dangerfield and Ablett.
So the Eagles face the question as to whether they are prepared to go into their future picks to sweeten the deal, a notion they view at this point as unacceptable.
And the Cats, who say they would be able to overcome the Kelly gang's disappointment at not being near family, face several questions if 20 and 22 are all that is sitting there around 8pm on Wednesday.
Can they potentially do the work they wanted the Eagles to do and upgrade them to a higher pick before this year's national draft?
Are they prepared to take a long-term view by adding a bunch of pick 20s that grow together and go hard after premiership-winning talent to complement them?
And do they have a realistic view of their list that finished a fading eighth this season when they lost six of their last 11 games for the season?
Picks 20 and 22 are enough for Kelly but it is not enough for Geelong. That is nub of the problem the Eagles face.
Peter Ryan joined The Age in 2017 having covered AFL as a senior reporter with AFL Media.
