Islamic State (IS) group chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was found and killed over the weekend in northern Syria just a few miles from the Turkish border in a US raid that evaded the Turkeys Incirlik base, in a sign of the increasing distrust between US and Turkish militaries.
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The compound where Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was targeted early Sunday is located near the village of Barisha in northwestern Syria barely three miles from the Turkish border in Idlib, a province that has come to be known as “the last refuge of Syrian rebels” resisting President Bashar al-Assads forces.
But it was an odd last refuge for the self-styled “caliph” of the IS group – one that underscores the conflicting interests of the players, and their backers, in the Syrian war. While the international community has welcomed Baghdadis killing, his location and the manner in which the US raid was planned and executed highlights the security threats that still dog the region and beyond.
Barisha village lies in a zone marked “rebel control” on Syrian battle maps, and is where an estimated three million people, mostly civilians, coexist with a witchs brew of jihadist groups, including al Qaedas Syrian branch and a number of allied or warring factions. Most of them are mortal rivals of the IS group.
Turkey has about a dozen military observation posts in Idlib that monitor the rebel area, where the Turkish-backed rebel Free Syrian Army – now confusingly called the National Syrian Army (NSA) – also operate.
Ankara has emerged as a guarantor of sorts for the Idlib pocket, after Turkey negotiated a ceasefire with Russia and Iran in May under the Astana process. The deal saw the establishment of a buffer zone, which Turkey wanted, to protect Idlib residents from Assads offensive.
In return, Turkey was required to remove all jihadist groups, including al Qaeda affiliates and breakaway groups, from the province.
Baghdadis presence in Idlib put the spotlight on Turkeys failure to implement its commitment, which was quickly noted by regional experts a day after the raid.
The starting point of the US operation also raised eyebrows in defence and counterterror circles, underscoring tensions between Turkey and its fellow NATO members.
When US attack helicopters took off on their mission around midnight in the region on Sunday, they did not fly out of Incirlik, NATOs second-largest air base, located in southern Turkey just across the Mediterranean Sea from northwestern Syria.
Instead the helicopters – packed with Delta Force commandos and kit – took off from the Al-Asad air base in Iraqs western Anbar province, taking an east-west flight path that spanned the breath of Syria over dangerous enemy-held terrain.
In its editorial the morning after President Donald Trumps announcement, the Washington Post cut to the heart of the security concerns plaguing allies in the international coalition against the IS group. “That U.S. forces neither used Turkeys nearby Incirlik air base as a staging ground nor informed Ankara about the target of the operation in advance testifies to the unreliability of an ally Mr. Trump says he is counting on to prevent the Islamic States resurgence,” noted the Post.
“What we know is that the Turkish government has been very upset with how closely the US government continues to cooperate with the [Kurdish-led] SDF. For operational reasons, the US found it best to leave from Erbil, in an atmosphere of more coordinated security for the US that would make it more unlikely for ISIS [IS group] to get prior warning of the raid. If you read between the lines of what US officials are saying, its clear we dont trust Turkey enough to cooperate closely,” said Nicholas Heras, from the Washington DC-based Center for a New American Security, who has advised US counterterrorism officials on Syria, in an interview with FRANCE 24.
Baghdadis underwear stolen for DNA tests
In sharp contrast, recent news reports have highlighted the critical role Turkeys arch foe, the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces), played in Sundays complex raid.
In a detailed Twitter posting Tuesday, Polat Can, a senior SDF adviser, revealed that one of the groups sources managed to steal Baghdadis used underwear and later a sample of his blood, which were passed on to US intelligence officials. The positive DNA matches kicked the operation into high gear “more than a month ago”, said Can.
But the October 9 Turkish invasion of northeastern Syria, “prompted us to stop our special operations, including the pursuit of Al-Baghdadi. The Turkish invasion caused a delay in the operation”, Can added.
1- Through our own sources, we managed to confirm that Al Baghdadi had moved from Al Dashisha area in Deir Al Zor to Idlib. Since 15 May, we have been working together with the CIA to track Al Baghdadi and monitor him closely.
— بولات جان Polat Can (@PolatCanRojava) October 28, 2019
Meanwhile, the US on Tuesday confirmed an SDF announcement — issued hours after Trump announced Baghdadis death — that a joint raid between Kurdish-led and US forces in Jarablus in Syrias Aleppo province killed another high-level IS-group figure.
Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir was considered a possible replacement to head the IS group following Baghdadis death, a thwarted succession Trump alluded to when he tweeted, “Just confirmed that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadis number one replacement has been terminated by American troops.”
Just confirmed that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadis number one replacement has been terminated by American troops. Most likely would have taken the top spot – Now he is also Dead!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 29, 2019
Speaking to reporters Tuesday, SDF General Commander Mazloum Abdi told reporters the joint US-SDF raid on Muhajir was "a continuation of the previous operation" in which Baghdadi was killed.
Trumps sudden decision earlier this month to withdraw US troops coordinating with SDF troops in Syria drew sharp criticisms over his betrayal of the Kurds, Washingtons most committed military allies in the fight against the IS group.
The US president has since attempted to backpedal by announcing the redeployment of US troops from the border zone invaded by Turkey to an area further east to protect oil wells still under Kurdish control. Since the oil wells have been defunct and destroyed by fighting in the Syrian war, the announcement was widely viewed as a bid to maintain US special forces in the volatile area.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he wants to move an estimated three million mostly Sunni Arab Syrian refugees in Turkey into a Syrian border “buffer zone” inhabited by Kurds, Christians, Yazidis and a number of minority groups.
Parallels with Pakistan
The distrust, Heras noted, bears some similarities to Americas fraught relationship with Pakistan during the 2011 raid on a compound not far from the Pakistani capital of Islamabad that killed Osama bin Laden. Pakistan, a Cold War-era US ally and partner in the war on terror, was not informed of the operation until after the al Qaeda founder was killed and the US team had returned to an air base iRead More – Source
