Selections for Tuesdays New Years meeting at Kensington based on a good.
Race 1 – 1:35PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1800 METRES)
3. Gayatri let punters who took the $1.45 at Kembla last start down as she could only manage third. She may not have loved the heavy track as it took her forever to wind up but she did close off well and meets the winner 2.5kg better, gets a good track and an extra 200m. If she can hold a reasonable spot from the inside gate Hugh Bowman can do the rest.
Dangers: 2. Miss Jenny deserves some respect despite not having everything to suit her this time around. All three wins have come on very wet tracks so that may be her edge. Its fair to say shes had her chance on good tracks but shes drawn to stalk and has James McDonald to steer which is a big plus. 8. Rock Zone is starting to hit his straps and looks to be crying out for more ground. Left it very late but got the job done at Hawkesbury last time and he chased home Welsh Legend before that which isnt bad form. Gets in with just 52kg and is an each-way chance. 6. Thunder Pace is the likely leader. He was put out of his comfort zone when the winner took off here last start and didnt appreciate the chasing. Up in trip and if the track is leaderish again he could take running down.
How to play it: Gayatri WIN; Quinella 2 & 3.
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Form: James McDonald rides Naval Warfare – strongly favoured in the New Year's Day Cup in race five today – to victory in the Membership Handicap at Warwick Farm. Credit:AAP
Race 2 – 2:10PM 2019 MEMBERSHIP HANDICAP (1550 METRES)
2. Love Shack Baby looks close to a win and maps well to sit just off the speed. Not a lot of luck first-up at Canterbury but attacked the line well late then didnt love having to chase but stayed on well behind a runaway winner here second-up. This is his distance range and hell have his chance to break through.
Dangers: 6. Zeppelin is another likely to be just off them in the run and he comes off a solid win at Wyong as favourite where he wound up hard to win after being held up. Hard to see him not featuring somewhere in the finish. 3. Smiling Manolito has found his niche as a front-runner and if he gets control then he can be hard to catch. Run down by Cest Davinchi two back then got lucky as Welsh Legend blew the start and wasnt able to reel him in last time. I wonder about the depth of his form but hes sure to give a sight, particularly if left alone. 7. Chalk is a funny horse, hed win this race on his best form. Last win was in October 2017 and he beat Redouble and Firsthand! Sound behind Poetic Charmer two back then had support on the heavy at Warwick Farm last start and just battled after settling at the tail. One to throw in the multiples.
How to play it: Love Shack Baby E/W.
Race 3 – 2.45PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (1550 METRES)
Theres a chance 5. Maddison Avenue finds a soft lead here and that would give her an excellent chance to find her best. Two runs back havent been bad, particularly first-up beaten 1.6 by Sweet Deal. Off the bit chasing on the heavy last time so forgive that. Good each-way hope in a winnable race for her.
Dangers: 4. Via Veneto would be the logical danger with her form around Tunero standing up. Started a well supported favourite when runner-up to that horse at Canterbury and is drawn to get another nice run just behind them. Hard to beat. 2. Shantou had excuses last start at Wyong and was game in defeat running second to Spanish Dream. She raced wide and was left flat when the winner circled before the turn but kept coming suggesting the extra trip with an easier run would suit. Strong claims. 3. Ivys Court ran on from last into third in a similar race to this on December 21 over the same course. If she gets the race run to suit shes a winning chance but either way she should be running on again.
How to play it: Maddison Avenue E/W.
Race 4 – 3.20PM TAB REWARDS PLATE (1400 METRES)
6. Darkhawk has had no luck at all in his two starts to date and seems well over the odds if he finally gets the breaks. Raced wide on debut and kept coming then up to this trip he started favouite and was wide again and over raced before weakening late. Fitter, drawn the inside and he has the chance to show what hes got.
Dangers: 1. Belladeel is an interesting first starter for the Waller camp. Shes shown speed in both her trials, winning the first then a close third in the second, and any support for her would be significant. 3. Jimmu has come up very short on the back of a solid debut second at Wyong behind a smart looking type in Nindamos. He raced wide there and was no match but fought on. Awkward gate again and while he looks under the odds hes a contender. 4. Nobu is crying out for a mile but stays at the 1400m after his late closing third over this course on December 21. Hell get back from the outside gate and be running on, if they overdo it up front he could swamp them.
How to play it: Darkhawk E/W.
Race 5 – 4.00PM NEW YEARS DAY CUP (2400 METRES)
3. Naval Warfare looks to have complete control in the five horse field and he only has to run out the 2400m strongly to win in a race with really only one, maybe two, serious threats. His last four runs have all been excellent and he was well ridden to score at Warwick Farm. Only attempt at the trip he was cut down by Destinys Kiss late in the McKell Cup in May.
Dangers: 2. Destinys Kiss is always a chance in these races and has seven wins at 2400m to his credit. His weakness is a flat spot he always hits around 800m-600m out but if hes within striking range with 200m to go hell take holding out. 4. Earth Angel has been disappointing with only one win in 14 starts but if you overlook her last start flop at Flemington her two previous runs had some merit. Placed in a couple of weak G3 races last season and in the small field shes the other chance. 7. Just Dylan won well at Canberra two starts ago then boxed on fairly behind Tunero on Boxing Day. Place hope if something goes awry with one of the above trio.
How to play it: Naval Warfare WIN.
Race 6 – 4:40PM BOWERMANS OFFICE FURNITURE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
1. Fuchu looks a progressive type and hes been strong late in his two provincial wins this time in. Super effort dropping 50m around Wyong and coming from last on the turn to score and hell appreciate a bigger track. There should be enough speed for him to be able to have his chance to pick them up again, hopefully hes in the clear in plenty of time.
Dangers: 2. Great Job is well worth keeping safe at his first run for Clare Cunningham. He contested the Provincial Championship series in 2018 on the back of a string of wins and I could see nothing wrong with his two trials back. Probably goes forward from out wide and deserves respect. 7. Without Revenge is nominated for a Highway on Saturday so if he runs here you know Matt Dunn thinks highly of him. Too good from the back first-up at Ipswich and while up 4kg he has all the upside and should be considered. 6. Seahampton is an enigma, she looked so good winning back in July but the wheels have fallen off her. She was fair behind Seasons first-up and with much less depth here she has the chance to be competitive.
How to play it: Fuchu WIN; Trifecta 1/ 2,6,7/2,6,7.
Race 7 – 5:20PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1250 METRES)
11. Seles is the lowest rated horse in this race but its no surprise shes hard in the market here after a couple of rumbles with The Art Of The Bar at her last couple of starts. Improved almost five lengths back onto a good track last time as she closed off well and she gives every indication 1250m will be no hassle. Hard to hold out.
Dangers: 8. Make 'Em Cry has won two from six and been unfancied in the betting on both occasions which is interesting. Held them off on the heavy at Kembla last time and as the likely leader here he could give plenty of cheek if allowed to dictate. 9. Osorno disappointed first-up against his own age then went to Wyong and didnt have the best of luck there beaten a couple of lengths without the chance to wind up. Should be able to get to the outside this time and if hes in the mood hell be running on strongly. 1. Pelorus Jack is a big query here first-up without a trial this preparation. He just didnt come up last time in but it seems Les Bridge is trying something different with him. More than capable on his best form so if theres an upset it could be him.
How to play it: Seles WIN.
Race 8 – 6:00PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB SPRINT (1000 METRES)
9. Laburnum looks the good thing of the day off an outstanding trial and its significant shes been kept fresh with three weeks since the trial. She mixed it with Smart Melody, Thinkin Big and company last time in and has found a race where she can sit midfield behind a good speed, get to the outside and run over the top. Thats the theory anyway, the only risk is finding 1000m too slick but happy to take it.
Dangers: 1. Nics Vendetta is a very handy horse and while he hasnt won fresh he usually runs a good race then improves sharply second-up. His last couple of first-up runs have been at 900m at Newcastle so better suited here and with the claim and soft gate can be in the finish. 2. Vincero was wayward first-up but ran on very well for a close second at Gosford then flopped at Hawkesbury when second favourite to a promising type. Down to 57kg, drawn nicely and hes more than capable of improving sharply. 4. Witherspoon was a beaten favourite first-up at Wyong and cant really make too many excuses for her. On paper shell be in a speed battle for the lead which is a worry. If she lands in front uncontested then she can take running down.
How to play it: Laburnum WIN; Trifecta 9/1,2,4/1,2,4.
Supplied by Racing NSW.
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