With weather improving, track should be near Good 4, with Rail True, so expect even pattern early before off-pace runners dominate.
Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1280m):
Local filly 5. Supreme Gem was very good on Mudgee Cup day at her third career start finishing hard from a mile back and wins in a few more strides. Gets a softer draw here.
Dangers: Top-weight 1. Perigord was well backed and very good at second career run at Mudgee leading and fighting on strong, despite being harassed by a longer-priced runner for much of the trip. Hawkesbury filly 8. Mosht Up has mixed form, but is capable of reeling off a sharp final 400m and should be in the finish.
How to play it: Supreme Gem to win and quinella 1 and 5.
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There are eight races scheduled for Orange today.Credit:AAP
Race 2 CL2 PLATE (1000m):
Good quality race, but lightly raced Mudgee 5YO 4. Caprera has had a few setbacks in her career and hasn't started since a good effort at Dubbo in late March, but dominant trial win at Scone after sitting wide suggests he's ready to return with a bang. Has good draw and form rider aboard.
Dangers: Mudgee mare 5. Dollar Thief wasn't far off resuming over the shorter course at Narromine, and is better suited here second-up over longer. Top-weight 1. Arctic Warrior also just missed resuming in an 800m Narromine dash and much better suited this distance, despite a sharp weight rise; while Yass mare 3. Bay Of Modena is hard to catch, but was strong to the line in a decent BM 58 at Wagga last start.
How to play it: Caprera to win.
Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):
Typical wide open lower-grade maiden where plenty have had a stack of starts already, but one of those can break through at her 35th start. Dubbo mare 7. Fleur De Force has made a long habit of settling back and working home, but her last two runs have been among her best. She finished strongly at huge odds in a decent Mudgee maiden before backing up three days later and again getting home nicely from a wide gate behind nice galloper Larynx at Dubbo. Gets a better draw here and out to 1400m suits.
Dangers: Warwick farm filly 12. Age Of War is the one on the way up, not beaten far behind a good horse at Newcastle at third career start. First prep form in the winter in much better company was solid, and will be right in the finish with even luck. Hawkesbury filly 13. Lexi's Choice is another one who finds the line without threatening, but gets a good gate and weight; while big watch on 14. Positive Peace from strong Warwick Farm yard who didn't do a lot resuming on heavy ground at Kembla, but raced against much stronger during the winter and is better served here second-up over longer trip.
How to play it: Fleur De Force each-way and box trifecta 7-12-13-14.
Race 4 CL3 HCP (1600m):
Another race with terrific depth, but promising Mudgee 4YO 5. The Warlord toyed with his rivals on Cup day winning his maiden, and while this is stronger, he looms as the one to beat from a good draw and down in weight.
Dangers: Hawkesbury mare 4. Staggering has had two solid runs back from a spell and is suited getting out to the mile third-up. Like the run of 10. Lucy's Legacy at Mudgee almost leading all the way in a lesser grade, and gets nice weight relief for the step up in grade. Another Mudgee visitor in 3. Western Parade continues to improve attacking the line from well off the speed in a BM 66 at Gunnedah last start; while Warwick Farm-trained 2. Rubino Veloce is suited here fourth-up from off the speed; & 8. Narrow Neck Nelson has seemingly turned the corner winning his maiden this track two starts back before finishing hard at Mudgee last start, and while this is stronger, gets in very light after rider's 3kg claim.
How to play it: The Warlord to win and box first four 2-3-4-5-8-10.
Race 5 CL1 HCP (1400m):
The scratchings of Lucys Legacy and Andys A Star have changed the picture dramatically here and 3. Bridge of Kildare looks headed for better races after charging home to break her maiden.
Dangers: 4. Brix won his maiden first-up at Canberra before closing hard next start.
How to play it: Bridge of Kildare to win and quinella 3-4.
Race 6 ALLANDALE STUD CUP (1400m):
Another deep race. Really like the pattern for versatile Dubbo mare 6. Hammoon Bridge. Won three starts back from off the speed at Coonamble, then battled on strong last start from the front in the BM 80 Cotton Cup at Warren. Given a five week freshen-up and back to more suitable 1400m from a good draw.
Dangers: Local 6YO 7. Loves A Hassle has put two wins together this track, both times finishing hard in BM 66 company, and while this is stronger, gets in nicely at the weights after rider's claim. Dubbo warrior 3. Any Blinkin' Day is as honest as they come and will finish on again from a nice draw; while the luckless Mudgee mare 10. Meraki Miss is pushed out to 1400m for the first time, but is a winner this track and drops significantly in weight. Hawkewsbury-trained 1. Poet's Advocate comes back from stronger city company and has had a recent trial, but carting 61kg is a task.
How to play it: Hammoon Bridge and Meraki Miss both to win.
Race 7 BM 58 HCP (1000m):
Tough race with a few dual acceptors, including 2. Caprera who again looks hard to beat off the Scone trial over this trip if the stable goes this way.
Dangers: Hawkesbury-trained 3. Paris In May has been sparingly raced in decent juvenile company, and broke his maiden two starts back this track. Drawn to get a nice trailing run. Warwick Farm filly 4. Countercurrent has been fair in two runs back, but is ready to produce third-up despite the wide gate; while 6. Hylonome powered home to win on debut at Canberra, and while this is stronger, she looks very capable.
How to play it: Paris In May to win and quinella 2 and 3.
BEST BETS:
R4 5. THE WARLORD
R5 2. ANDY'S A STAR
BEST VALUE:
R6 6. HAMMOON BRIDGE
Supplied by Racing NSW
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