Selections based on a Heavy track.
Race 1 – 1:30PM DUCK CREEK PLATE (1000 METRES)
The form guide says 4. Psittacine hasnt done a lot in his two starts but treating him like a different horse since he has been gelded this time in. Hes trialled twice and went to the line nicely in his latest on a heavy track. The conditions shouldnt worry him and if he runs up to the trials he should be competitive in a wide open race.
A heavy track is expected at Kembla Grange.Credit:Adam McLean
Dangers: 7. Design Ahead has only had the one trial a month ago and finished a handy enough third against open class horses. From top local stable and commands some respect. 6. Ausbred is also on debut and it hard to line up on a heavy track off a couple of trials on good tracks. Blinkers go on so he could improve on his latest trial but he guided by the market for a push. 1. Colonel Penaga has had plenty of chances and only worked home fairly without threatening over this course last month. Has a heavy track placing but was beaten four lengths in that race. Place claims.
How to play it: Box Quinella 4,6 & 7.
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Race 2 – 2:05PM COURDEAUX DAM HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
Hes a bit short for a horse that hasnt raced on a wet track but 4. American Salute will be the horse they must beat. Beaten favourite in both runs this time in but has finished off well and if he handles the ground whatever beats him will win.
Dangers: 2. Better Take Cover made a handy debut on a heavy track before beating a small field at Wyong. Not seen since a close up fourth over 1500m on his home track but he should appreciate the ground and while the trip is probably a bit short of his best the wet may negate that. Keep safe. 1. Crimson Ticket hasnt been exposed to a wet track on race day but did win a trial in June on heavy ground. He trialled nicely on a good track a few weeks ago and is worth including in the chances. 3. Mandalong Emperor finished strongly along the rail to win at Gosford on a wet track then just battled back on top of the ground here last time out. Entitled to another chance given the conditions.
How to play it: American Salute WIN; Trifecta 4/1,2,3/1,2,3.
Race 3 – 2:40PM WORONORA DAM HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
1. Spin Bowles is race fit with two runs under his belt and he made light work of a soft 7 at Gosford last start. That suggests hell be fine on a heavy, he can race handy and its hard to put anything else on top. Clearly the one to beat.
Dangers: 3. So Magic showed some promise in her first preparation last December on good tracks. Two trials back have been solid including on a heavy track at Warwick Farm earlier this month. Shes the logical threat. 2. Rubino Veloce will excel over a little more ground but first-up at this trip on a wet track brings him into contention. Sure to be hitting the line strongly late. 6. Texas Tycoon has a heavy track win against his name and hasnt been far away in recent starts on soft tracks. Probably cant win but may figure in the placings.
How to play it: Spin Bowles WIN.
Race 4 – 3.15PM ALLEN CREEK PLATE (1300 METRES)
3. Bardor appears to have only one serious rival to debut with a win and at the value shes worth a shot. Though its taken a while to get her to the track she trialled well without the blinkers at Newcastle recently and would only have to handle the ground to go very close.
Dangers: 1. Cest Davinchi hasnt struck a seriously wet track yet and with four seconds from six starts he probably has the form on the board to say hes not going to get a better chance to break through. Had his chance in a reasonable form race fresh and he is the winner if Bardor doesnt. 2. Jonjos Comet produced his best effort before a spell for a placing at Muswellbrook but didnt show much in a recent trial. Unless hes a real mudlark its hard to see him winning. 5. Magic Mary makes up the field and as a 15 start maiden with no wet track form at all its hard to make a case for her. But, stranger things have happened.
How to play it: Bardor WIN.
Race 5 – 3.50PM LODDON FALLS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
Unless one of the first starters is above average this is a good race for 5. Not A Zin Zan to show what shes made of. Out of a Snippets mare so the wet should be okay and she finished close up in a stronger maiden at Gosford two weeks ago. This is the easiest task shes been set and has her chance, though she is a bit short.
Dangers: 1. Concave is a nice looking colt who races in the Winx colours on debut. Best of three trials in the last 12 months was his latest on a heavy track and he bears close watching. 2. Irish Slipper is bred to appreciate a bit of sting out of the ground and kicking off at 1400m is handy for him on pedigree too. Had two 1200m trials so should be ready to go. 3. Wristband is a bit harder to line up on trials given hes been safely held in the last couple. That said, not seen since June so keep an eye on betting for a pointer.
How to play it: Not A Zin Zan; Trifecta 5/1,2,3/1,2,3.
Race 6 – 4:25PM STOCKYARD CREEK HANDICAP (1500 METRES)
1. Stardome is very short in the market, getting close to Winx-like prices, and this race is at his mercy. Found it too short on debut but hit the line well then straight to a mile and finished close up. He trialled on a heavy track and won and is entitled to win this race.
Dangers: 5. Snippetsline backs up from racing at Kembla on Saturday on a heavy track and while she finished midfield she wasnt beaten too far and stuck to her guns fairly well. Should be hard fit and can get into a placing. 4. Salon Miss is a 10 start maiden though her two placings have come on her home track. Probably not suited to leading last time and could be an improver but hard to see her winning. 3. Oakwoods Hope is also backing up from Saturday where he sat handy and dropped off to beat a couple home. Couldnt win on that but there are a couple of placings up for grabs.
How to play it: Exacta 1 & 5.
Race 7 – 5:00PM MULLET CREEK MILE HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
3. Mr Boomjangles should give a good account at each-way odds back into his correct grade. Beat a subsequent winner on a soft 7 at Hawkesbury then outclassed at Randwick a couple of Saturdays ago. Ran well at only other heavy track attempt and should be competitive here.
Dangers: 4. Kings Peak is an up and comer who justified a short price in winning at Goulburn recently. A very heavy track is probably a query but given hes at peak fitness if hes going to handle it he should be fine here. 1. Cool And Neat has been hitting the line well without winning all preparation and fair to say he was a shade disappointing last time out running third at Newcastle. Yet to see a heavy track but racing too well to ignore. 2. Shouson comes into this off a popular maiden win at Newcastle on a good track. Yet to put a foot wrong and if he appreciates the wet he will be right in the finish.
How to play it: Mr Boomjangles E/W.
Race 8 – 5:40PM CATARACT DAM HANDICAP (2000 METRES)
3. Knight Star was a beaten favourite at Hawkesbury last month after switching states but he still ran well and has the blinkers on this time. He has handled a wet track in the past and if the blinkers switch him on he has a strong chance to break through.
Dangers: 6. Mohican is the likely leader and ran third in the same race at Hawkesbury before giving a good sight at Warwick Farm on a heavy 10. Appreciates the class drop and can take running down. 8. Home Win produced his best effort this time in with a much improved second at Hawkesbury on a soft 7. He appears to like the wet so he has to be included in the main chances. 9. Villarrica drops 5kg on a handy second at Port Macquarie where she found the line nicely from near the tail to go down narrowly. Can mix her form but has each-way claims at least.
How to play it: Knight Star WIN; Quinella 3 & 6.
