With eight games remaining in the A-League season, Melbourne Victory are well placed to lock up an A-League finals berth.
But the way they are going there is no guarantee that Kevin Muscat's side will finish in the top four, the minimum required to secure a home final.
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At present Victory are fifth on the ladder, a point behind fourth-placed Adelaide, seven behind local rivals Melbourne City and 11 behind second-placed Newcastle Jets. Don't even ask about the gap to league leaders Sydney.
There are mitigating circumstances: Muscat's selection options were compromised early by the regular unavailability of Socceroos Mark Milligan and James Troisi, away on World Cup qualifying duty. Ditto New Zealand forward Kosta Barbarouses.
Barbarouses has come back and is playing well, and Milligan, controversially, has gone to the Middle East in pursuit of riches which should underwrite a comfortable post-soccer life.
That leaves Troisi, who has been the biggest disappointment for Victory this season.
The attacking midfielder has looked ill at ease and not on top of his game.
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Whether he is frustrated that potential moves overseas or an off-season shift to Melbourne City collapsed, whether he is carrying an injury, or whether he is just going through an inexplicable run of form,he is not having the impact that Muscat, or the Victory faithful, would want.
His statistics this season make grim reading.
Troisi has two goals in 15 games, and just two assists. He is not afraid to try his luck – his 31 shots means he averages more than two a game, and in the Victory side is trumped only by Barbarouses (34), Berisha (39) and Leroy George (36) shots this season so far.
But Berisha and George have played two and three more games than he, respectively, while Barbarouses has played the same.
The other three have all had more shots on target than Troisi, and have scored more goals – Berisha tops the list with eight, while Barbarouses has seven and George three.
If he can bring a sharper edge to his game, better his strike rate and add to his goals and assist tally then Victory should, at the very minimum, ensure a top-four finish and a guaranteed home final.
He would also do his World Cup prospects no end of good as new coach Bert Van Marwijk may not have the same loyalty to previously successful players as his predecessor, Ange Postecoglou, did.
Troisi famously scored the winner in the Asian Cup final against South Korea and was part of the Socceroos squad in Brazil. He was also a major part of Postecoglou's squad during the last qualification, so he clearly has an international pedigree which suggests he should be a dominant figure in the A-League.
Muscat will likely use Terry Antonis as a direct replacement for Milligan, while Geroge is fit again and sure to come back into the starting line-up for Friday night's clash with Brisbane Roar.
The Roar lie outside the top six in seventh spot in what has also been an up and down season. Victory is seven points clear of John Aloisi's team, so if they secure three points here they would almost make certain of a finals berth barring an unexpected collapse.
Centre half James Donachie's return to action means that Thomas Deng's injury is not so critical.
''Tommy Deng still hasn't come up, we are optimisitc that he will start training in the next few days. He has a slight little issue in his adductor, its slight, but it is stopping him completing full training sessions,'' Muscat said on Thursday.
''Stef [Stefan Nigro] is half a chance of being involved. From last week Jason Geria comes back into the reckoning after his suspension. Leroy Goerge now is fully fit after half an hour last week, so that's a real positive for us.
''To have James Donachie and Terry Antonis get through 90 minutes last week is a massive positive for them and the team."
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SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
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