The recommendation is to make a friendly bragging rights’ pick (I never encourage gambling) if the point spread varies at least two points from his projected score either on the winning team or the over under.
Busby uses the 5 Dimes Point Spreads, which often do not come out until the day of the game, so click here to determine the spread against the following key games:
|Lee Busby Saturday Predictions||Pick team if spread gives||Play over. under if|
|46th Ohio St. 77 vs. 11th UNC 79||Ohio St. +4, UNC if Even||Under if 158+, Over if 154-|
|134th Georgia St. 69,at 213th Chatt 68||Ga St if +1, Chattanooga if +3||Under if 146+, Over if 142-|
|161st Harvard 66, at 163rd GWU 71||Harvard if +7, GWU if -3||Under if 139+, Over if 135-|
|94th Illinois 73 vs. 50th Missouri 77||IL if +6, MZ if -2||Under if 152+, Over if 148-|
|144th Illinois St. 68 at 160th Evansville 76||Ill St if +10, Evansville if -6||Under if 146+, Over if 142-|
|Lee Busby Wednesday Predictions||Pick team if spread gives||Play over. under if|
|28th Tennessee 73, at 63rd Wake Forest 75||Tennessee +4, WF if Even||Under if 150+, Under if 146-|
|55th UCLA 75 vs. 16th Kentucky 80||UCLA if +7, KY if -3||Under if 157+, Over if 153-|
|103rd Connecticut 69, at 40th Auburn 83||UConn if +16, Auburn if -12||Under if 154+, Over if 150-|
|45th Butler 73, at 104th Georgetown 76||Butler if +5, Gtown if -1||Under if 151+, Over if 147-|
|17th Xavier 82, at 53rd Marquette 84||Marquette if +4, Xavier if EVEN||Under if 168+, Over if 164-|
|34th Nevada 76, at 70th Fresno St. 79||Nevada if +5, Fresno if -1||Under if 157+, Over if 153-|
|57th San Diego St. 75, at 132nd Wyoming 74||SDSU if +1, Wyoming if +3||Under if 151+, Over if 147-|
|77th UCF 63, at 21st SMU 75||UCF if +14, SMU if -10||Under if 140+, Over if 136-|
|1st Villanova 76 at 110th DePaul 71st||Villanova if -3, DePaul if +7||Under if 149+, Over if 145-|
So as an example his first pick posted here is for the 46th place team in Pomeroy, Ohio State, to lose to the 11th place team, UNC, 77-79. Therefore if the spread gives Ohio State at least a +4 (meaning UNC is favored by 4 points so you get to add 4 points to Ohio State’s score if you pick them) then you should pick Ohio State. However, pick UNC if the game is a toss-up or if UNC was getting any points. However, if Ohio State is only a slight underdog, between a +3.5 and +0.5, then safer to skip the game.
Likewise Lee projects 156 points will be scored in a 79-77 UNC win. Therefore if the Over/Under is 154 or less you would pick OVER, but if it were 158 or more then pick UNDER. If the Over/Under is between 155-157 then leave it alone.
You should also do a game day check of any recent injuries on the Don’s Best report, and if you see a player was just reported injured, then go to www.valueaddbasketball.com to see how many points a game that player’s loss could hurt the team by comparing the recently injured player to the 7th best player on the same team.
For example, if Ohio State’s Keita Bates-Diop (Jersey #33) is worth 8.67 points per game (the 27th most valuable player in the country). If he were an injury after this story was posted, they you would subtract that total and add the total of Ohio State’s 7th best player Kam Williams (1.73) to conclude that Ohio State was 6.94 points worse due to the injury. That would adjust a projected two point loss to a nine point loss, and mean you wanted to wager against Ohio State if they were a +7 or worse.
By the same token, if a player returns from an injury or was a second semester transfer that just started playing, then you should go to the projected values to see how many points he should add back to the team now that he is back.
Check the comments field below for any last minute adjustments, and if we catch any changes due to same day injuries or returns, we will note those changes in the comments fields before tip-off so you do not need to do the math.
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